Saturday, March 9, 2024

Ethereum is Going to 0 & BTC Merry-Go-Round

 Very much a question of when, not if.

 However, it's a very very big when, indeed. 


 I sincerely doubt anyone can tell you when Ethereum will hit zero. Even if someone does know, they won't know yet. If it's in the short enough term that someone already knows, they are wisely not saying anything, but instead quietly shorting it. 

 Ethereum will go to zero. It also will be a surprise. "Why now?" Only answerable in retrospect.


 The main thing is, if you get involved in Ethereum, know exactly what you're going to do when it goes to 0. Plan on it happening. If you insist on planning on it not happening, then ensure you plan in the shortest term possible. Minimize exposure. It's low-key a miracle it hasn't already exploded to bits. 


 A general principle of finance: good economists make bad traders. Bubble pricing is based entirely on ignorance, stupidity, and insanity. Good economists don't know anything about that. When will the batshit crazy nutjobs fixate on some other gobsmackingly retarded idea? Basically you have to be a retard yourself to know that, except, of course, then you're retarded and can't make good predictions. We will find out what the retards are thinking when the retards themselves find out. 

 In the meantime, don't invest in retard juice, that would be retarded.


 By contrast, buying as much debt as you can afford and spending it all on BTC is a fine idea. When it spikes, sell the BTC and pay off your loans, then, when it stabilizes again, go around the merry-go-round again. Don't worry about hitting the peak, worry about accumulating residual BTC after you zero out your debts; pull the trigger as soon as you have a comfortable margin when accounting for transaction costs. Bonus: inflation will destroy your debts even if BTC spikes don't. 

 In a Central Bank regime, rich folk practice is to be underwater at all times. As much debt as they'll let you have, assuming you can afford the interest. Grab the long end of the stick and be the problem you would otherwise complain about in the world. (Asset prices.)

 Especially if there's a huge ""emergency"" like ncov again, immediately buy debt and then BTC. War? Debt, BTC. Great Depression? Debt, BTC. Tax revolt? Debt, BTC.

 It should also be possible to do the merry-go-round with rental properties. Use the rent to service the debts, until the debts vanish of their own accord. It's better with something really volatile like BTC, though.

 You would be able to do this with gold too, but some sort of black criminal magic is being used to keep gold prices from having BTC price spikes. The banks know the side their bread is buttered on.
 The least corrupt thing it could possibly be is sadly the most corrupt thing my limited imagination can come up with: they're buying gold directly from gold mines via political force (Communist pricing), and selling this accumulated bullion every time gold threatens to go up, to simulate a bear market. I don't think this can explain the observed trade magnitudes, though. I don't care enough to do all the accounting myself, as the details aren't terribly important, only the condemnation. The details of the scam are of only scholastic curiosity.

No comments: