Saturday, January 30, 2021

GameStop Short Squeeze is Perfectly Efficient

Basically the short sellers have negative brand value and the stock market has worked out a way to charge them for this debt.

Markets are efficient as long as nobody legitimizes coercion. If nobody can force you to break your contracts, or force your counterparties to allow you to renege, then the market can properly aggregate demand.

Yes, if you try to price GameStop stock based on 'fundamentals' (which mean nothing without hardliner dividends) then you will get the wrong answer, because you have forgotten that money isn't worth anything.

Money is valuable because it can be used to buy things. The things are valuable. Money is merely a means. One of the valuable things money can buy is the ability to express hatred. If money's only value was to get more money - the mindset which says GameStop's stock price is 'inefficient' - then it would be a self-licking ice cream cone. Nobody makes self-licking ice cream cones. Someone does mint money, and therefore it must not be self-licking. Price hatred into GameStop's valuation and it makes perfect sense. Finish accounting for all the things it can buy. Don't stop in the middle to fraudulently 'prove' a market is inefficient or a human is irrational.

By contrast, if a market allows coercion then the coercive agent can simply force all other players to pay whatever they want. If the coercive agent doesn't immediately tax/rent all other players down to the poverty line, it's because there's some fig leaves still around. (Likewise the Laffer curve has to be adjusted for the value of lording it over a bunch of filthy peasants who were too weak to resist your traitorous parasitism.) Musk obvs real mad that $TSLA keeps getting shorted.
Taking a company public is a breach of honour and responsibility, moron. You asked for it.
I think Musk is a low-level lord, like a baronet or something. Overqualified compared to all this competitors, very underqualified compared to the intrinsic demands of his position. Winner of height contest for midgets. Though his companies probably have a high lord concentration, allowing them to suck less than would normally be expected.

You don't sell stock you don't own. That would be great. I'd love to sell all of /r/WSB's GameStop stock and pocket the proceeds. Woo! It's not mine, but who cares?
Rather, you get stock lent to you, and sell that. The buyers of this loaned stock can then re-gift it and have it sold again, which is what leads to the interesting accounting quantities.
Loans are loans. When you have loans without collateral, things can get hairy. This is not exactly rocket science. This is (ref: all of history) not a reason to ban loans, this is a reason to understand risk, and not to underwrite risks you can't afford. Someone underwrote Melvin Capital, and if they didn't want to get short squeezed then they shouldn't have done that. Personnel is policy, and Melvin is a getting-short-squeezed kind of person. It pays to know these things.

Short squeezes are still zero sum because Melvin Capital does not have infinite money. You cannot extract more money from a short squeeze than the underwriters possess. ("But money printer" no, that merely steals the money from long cash. Theft is coercion. It forces everyone who holds dollars to in part underwrite Melvin Capital.) It may seem there's some finagling when someone who loaned stock finds the debtor cannot repay the stock, but that's the risk you take when you underwrite a loan. If they didn't know they were underwriting a short position, they should have asked.

Those long GameStop also take on risk. If everyone is playing aboveboard Melvin will have the cash or other assets they gained by selling the short stock, and GameStop investors will be able to extract it. Sum = zero. However, Melvin could have easily bought something illiquid, in which case those long GameStop will have a difficulty known as burying the corpse.

E.g. one of the illiquid assets Melvin Capital could have bought is Melvin's time and labour. He gets to keep that salary no matter how bankrupt Melvin Capital becomes. This is the risk those who wish to be long GameStop need to be aware of. Else, a fool and his money are soon to part.

Melvin Capital is of course perfectly safe. The locus of legitimized defection or whitewashed deviance known as USG has repeatedly demonstrated capacity and willingness to bail them out if e.g. a short squeeze happens. MC employs an army of 'risk analysis' mainly to disguise their mafia membership, and slightly as sinecures for lower-ranked mafia members. Further, Melvin plays much safer when it's his own money. His professional position is extremely risky and his personal position can be safely described as aggressively boring. (Just in case USG goes Lehman on Melvin Capital.) 

None of this would be a problem for anyone but WSB & Melvin et al, except 401(k).

It should be fine for stock players to extract arbitrary amounts of money from the stock market and cause arbitrary crashes, because this would only affect other stock players, who either accepted the risk or are fools with money. The worse the turbulence the more disciplined the players will end up. Except, pension plans. The stock market is vastly inflated by all the fake 401(k) demand, which means there's always lots of money to extract, which means effectively stealing from Grandma, who cannot possibly understand or even be aware of the debt she's forced to underwrite, and is fraudulently assured she is taking on minimal risk.

When Grandma gets stolen from, she flinches. Weird. What a wuss. When Grandma flinches, every Grandma-class investor flinches, America as a whole flinches, and you get what's known as a recession, to which America is particularly prone due to artificial, price-controlled low interest rates causing malinvestment. America's businesses are largely fake and thus delicate in the face of shocks. (Then you realize China's economy is even worse. Hoo!) Though the GameStop thing isn't particularly dangerous due to ncov having already shocked the hell out of the place recently, and thus only robust businesses are still around (e.g. real-prices profitable).

Naturally when the recession is over, someone re-inflates the stock market and makes it a nice plump and juicy target again.
The idea is that the mafia is allowed to slowly extract value from pension plans, thus stealing sustainably. Tax rates can never be too high, after all. Since everyone's returns are getting jacked, there's no background to see the con against. You have to, like, actually know things, and Grandma is aggressively ignorant. Her position is super long delusion. Unfortunately the dons can never quite prevent the mafia from wanting to go all [roaming bandit], and anyway the market is never as well-insulated against nonlocal roving bandits as they would like. Bend over, Grandma.

America cannot unbugger its stock market because the buggery is how the supporter-parasites leeching it are being paid off. If the relevant Czars could afford to cut off these supporters, they would have already done so. However, should a country have an unbuggered stock market, there shouldn't be any reason to ban bad debtors from taking on debt. The problem of usury is the victims, not the perpetrators. Personnel is policy. Ban the victims. But...Gnon does that without prompting. The natural consequences ought to be terrifying enough. However, I could be wrong. Maybe someone will try it eventually.

I also know of coercive feedbacks between stock prices and CEOs. Stock prices should be able to fluctuate arbitrarily without forcing the CEO to make stupid decisions and affect day to day operations. Stock is by definition not owned by the company and votes aside should affect a company no more than your decision to walk your dog does. However, this is not the case. I don't know how a general stock crash forces companies to be stupid, but there probably is such a force. If you've done your set 2s, you can feel a fat band of pressure in just the right place. Maybe it's options as remuneration?

By the way, if you want to stop a Bank of England going all BoE, all you have to do is not stand in the way of the Bank Next Door To The Bank of England. The problem isn't weird derivatives, the problem is guns, especially guns that have to hide where they're pointing to avoid spooking Grandma. Stop digging: no hole appears. Lies are bad, mmmkay. Same way Melvin's professional and private investments are so very different; all you have to do is stop propping up his professional insanity and nobody acts crazy. Or more precisely, the crazy promptly go bankrupt and render themselves irrelevant.

Anyway if WSB gets what it wants, it will piss off the mafia and embarrass the don in front of Grandma. (Again.) The don has to keep Grandma pacified so he can keep paying off his consigliones with the change from her couch.* I wouldn't bet on the don letting you spook Grandma if I were you. It's a sinking ship, and the game is to gather as much 'salvage' as you can yet leaping off before it actually goes under. Good luck.

*(God that's lame. I didn't realize how pathetic that was until I put it into words.)

Saturday, January 23, 2021

Terror of Peasantry

Scott is a peasant. Like all peasants his primary motivators are cowardice and envy. Terror and spite.

If you were as weak as Scott, you too would be terrified of anyone figuring how spiteful you are. It's not like he can withstand any pushback. He's suitably motivated and not entirely an idiot, thus capable of putting up veils where he needs them, so perhaps we can forgive his many readers for squelching the little voice warning them to stay away from Scott. Of course, a majority of them are as spiteful as he is, and for them staying away wouldn't help much. Their life would contain the same amount of spite either way.
Getting folk like Scott on the side of the Regime is easy. He is, extremely rationally, more afraid of them than he is of you. Or me. I am merciful, the Regime is not. Though, if you got him in a room alone with you, you can probably make him say damn well whatever you please. Force also follows the inverse square law. Havel's greengrocer? Pshaw. Let me show you real supercilience. 

It is not impossible to whip folk like Scott in a useful direction. Hardly worth the effort, but not impossible. He has some good articles because someone did bother, or perhaps someone accidentally terrorized him the right way. E.g. you can get him so scared he forgets the spite and retreats entirely into his own mind to cut off the possible terror, which incidentally also isolates him from politics.

"With malice towards none, with charity towards all"
This is merely a lie. Let's put this in a rationalist way: nullius in verba. Another: whenever someone is telling you exactly what they're supposed to be saying, demand double evidence. With the absolutes used, apparently Scott is the next coming of Jesus, so we can use the heavy stress-tests.

Third: this is such an obvious lie, you're clearly supposed to see through it. Dog-whistling. Of course, not dog-whistling rationality because lies are irrational. They worship verbal articulation, not [hint-hint nudge-nudge]. Though like everything in America, Rationalism is fake and we should be expecting it to be a lie. Yeah he says he's a Rationalist - and every time he has to say it, he gets the virtue-signal penalty and must prove it twice again as hard, rationally speaking. Principle: it's a probable attempted cover-up.

In reality Scott has malice toward all, especially himself. He is at some level aware of how spiteful he is, and rationally believes this to be a mark of bad character. He believes he deserves to be oppressed for being an awful person.* This is much of why he so often goes down [but but the right is awful] rabbit holes. As long as someone else is more awful, he can feel relatively okay about himself. "We're all sinners but you're not even trying." This in turn is why he can't possibly admit right-wingers might have a point. He can't admit they're better than he thinks they are; he can only drag himself down to their perceived level. It doesn't help that he genuinely is kind of a little shit. Look at the photo at Lorien and try to tell me that beady-eyed double-sneer is the face of a kind and gentle healer. 

 *(The NYT agrees. Otherwise someone would have felt bad for what happened to him and apologized. But that's not how the Regime functions. Apologies require respect. They know only fear. Scott apologized, but not because he feels responsible; he feels afraid someone will hold him responsible. There's a checksum available which I'll skip for now.)

His veiling just kind of doesn't work on non-peasants, though. It only works on enough peasants.

"This is a totally different problem from the cancel culture stories I usually hear about, but just as serious. How are you supposed to write about communism in a world where any newspaper can just figure out your real name, expose you, and lock you out of most normal jobs?"

But whatabout the communists?

I mean, what reasonable society would want to shut down someone who prefers that millions starve to death? Clearly [just as serious] as Goody Hannah with the snippy tongue who called someone a mean name one time when you were a little girl. (Scott has always been a little girl.) And Definitely happens Just As Often.

Meanwhile, Scott is putting himself in the role of Glados. Because he's still alive, see.
You're an insane, murderous female robot? Yeah, sounds about right. I wouldn't just confess like that if I were you, but thanks for being so open about it. More precisely: he aspires to be Glados. Feminine Fascism is Fabulous. He's not even as good as Glados, in his own opinion.

Supporting communism somewhat satisfies Scott's urge to be vicious and nasty, with little to no risk he will called to task for it. He would prefer not to be nasty, but you can't just dislodge your core values like that. Hypothesis: an NPC is someone who has given up on their core value and embraced despair so deeply they've forgotten. Scott is not an NPC. 

The psycho lords aside, Scott is probably one of the higher-class servants of the Regime. He is emblematic of the [fine people] Moldbug sees working the bureaucracy.

Okay, sure. It is true that these folk would have to be rescued from themselves to avoid the Regime ass-raping everyone including itself. 

The simplest way is to simply put a gun to Scott's head. His core conviction is that pain is bad and he doesn't want to die. (Utilitarianism stripped of pretenses.) Gun in hand, he will genuinely believe whatever you tell him to believe. It's Rational to not get fucking killed, after all. Rationality is Winning, and if you have a gun to his head, you must have Won and thus be more Rational than he is.

Thus the problem is working out how to put a gun to Scott's head without having to shoot your way through the entire DoD. Sure we would intensely like forestall the aforementioned ass-raping but the aforementioned shooting is merely another version of it. Let's not [oops] that one. If the Regime is going to fall anyway, at least let the blood be on someone else's hands.

The Home Guard were betrayed again after the inauguration. But it's okay, they weren't betrayed enough to, you know, stop doing what the Regime says. As I mentioned previously, the Pope has this well in hand. 

Here we can see the reason Moldbug has to believe there's no Pope. Pope = no hope. In Moldbug's world, if we can figure out how to satisfy Scott's desire to be communist without letting him be, you know, communist, then he will convince the military to stop being so Fascist. (Having written out the plan explicitly, does it sound as obviously stupid to you as it does to me?) In reality, the Pope tells the army to put a gun to Scott's head, and Scott immediately goes back to telling Moldbug to politely go fuck himself.

Twist: I don't know any reason, Regime aside, Scott's spite couldn't be directed toward someone who genuinely deserves it. BLM causes tremendous suffering among the black community. Use that suffering as a pivot to get the spite directed properly, and then the only issue is whether the spite is useful when directed this way. I can't see any reason it isn't. Sadly the ethics board won't give me peasants to experiment on, so I haven't tried it, and the envy angle may make things tricky. Still, should be possible. There are no shortage of genuinely vile humans to put spite on. 

Child torturers, for example.

Double Twist: Scott is a child-torture cultist. Uhh....hmm.
To admit the truth - that public schools are concentration camps whose purpose is to torture children - is well, well beyond Scott's capacity to handle. "Oh by the way not only was your whole life meaningless, you were actively, intensely worshipping Satan this entire time."

Haha...ha...oops? Few things aren't funny, but that's not funny. Humans will do absolutely anything to avoid realizing this sort of thing about themselves. Is it even possible to modify this enough to make it psychologically plausible? "Oh yeah, it's not really your fault because you were so weak. You were a helpless child well into your 30s, don't blame yourself." Doesn't seem to be helping. "It's okay, relative to a coward like you, cringing slightly less is already plenty heroic." No?
Anyone complicit in the Regime is absolutely damned, psychologically speaking. 

Worse, invisible garage dragon. Scott knows he's complicit in the torture of children. He went to school, after all. He was there.
If you tell him, he won't be surprised. You can't ambush him with this. He knows exactly which bullshit he needs to pull to keep this knowledge buried all the way. This, among other things, is why he believes he deserves to be oppressed. When the NYT accidentally forces him to uproot his whole life, Scott merely sees an angel of the Lord handing out a portion of final judgment slightly ahead of schedule. Scott knows better than to shoot the messenger. It doesn't even occur to him.

Whence Scott's promiscuous malice? Isn't universal malice a particularly understandable reaction to a country which not only allows, but celebrates widespread torture of children? Scott's psychological arrangements make perfect sense given who he was born as and the environment he's in. If you don't sneer at Americans, it is perhaps you who is out of touch. The children don't want to go to school. And they're not wrong.

The problem is that the Progressive Regime is literally Satanist. (In shocking news, a proper cult of the Father of Lies lies about itself. Satan prefers crypto-worshippers who don't even themselves know.) If Americans don't repent their Satanism, the successor Regime will merely be Satanism 2.0. Have to get rid of the Fascism, including the concentration camps. Yet, repentance is impossible, because nobody can admit Fascism was wrong, precisely because it is so very, very, very wrong.

If someone were genuinely Rational, they would realize that, no matter how much of your life is wasted, the important thing in the here and now is to stop wasting it. The important sin isn't having done it, it's continuing to do it. It's not a coincidence that Rationalism is so popular in America. Even someone with minimal set 2s can feel it's exactly what they need. 

Pity it's fake. 

America has always been fundamentally Communist. What they want to supply is death and suffering. Gnon will magnanimously show them the way.

Compassion for Traitors

Reminder: Moldbug is a cope peddler for the discerning customer. The standard story goes about two inferential layers deep. Moldbug goes about five. By contrast, the truth goes forever.

There is also something more here, which I can't put my finger on. Yet. I will keep picking at it until it comes to light. (P.S. I found something. Title's a hint.)

"Treat it as if it did not exist—as if no one had ever considered thinking in this strange way."
If you do this you will have no idea when you fail.

Fascism is seductive due to osmosis. Your parents are Fascists, all your friends are Fascist, your co-workers are Fascist, everyone you have to obey is Fascist, the grocery store clerk is Fascist, the store's music is Fascist, and let's allow Havel to remind us all their signage and posters are Fascist. 

Fascism is also seductive due to being intentionally disguised. Parasites want you to think they're your friend. It's important to be able to pierce this camouflage. I use explicit verbal definitions. More on this at the bottom.

Reflexively, unconsciously, you develop a model of the minds around you. Fascism gets in. To get it out again, you need to recognize what must be shovelled out. Moldbug reads Noah Pinion, for god's sake. This is not treating Noah Pinion as if he didn't exist.
Thus Moldbug has failed his own prescription.
This is probably because Moldbug himself has no idea what he's saying. He certainly has no idea what he's thinking, or he would notice it's Fascist. This constitutes criminal negligence. He doesn't know because he hasn't checked. He hasn't checked because he senses he can't deal with what he would find. To withhold such a thing from his alleged allies constitutes not merely defection, but treachery.

That's about five inferential layers. But...let's not commit aposiopesis. Layer six: the representative Moldbug reader is not unaware of his treachery. They are in the market for being betrayed, as is traditional for American rightists. Naturally they don't consciously admit this to themselves, but it would be revealed by a little due diligence. 

Checksum: do you think every Fascist is a rank fool? That they can't tell if you're faking your Fascist etiquette? To get along with these people, your Fascist etiquette must be quite real. You must put on the Fascist suit. Which means you need to know how to take it off again, which means knowing what it is.

Moldbug, by his own admission, rejects knowing what it is, which handily explains why he can't take it off.

We can see why Moldbug must make this particular deal with the devil. The Amish, who genuinely do treat Fascism as if it didn't exist, are not dissidents. By having isolated themselves, they make it likewise the case that Fascism can forget the Amish exist. Ref: Newton's third law.

You do set 1s (you are doing your reps, yes?) because it tells you about the domain of your solutions. Moldbug assumes isolation where no isolation exists, but this doesn't mean isolation is impossible. If you get off Twitter and Facebook, don't watch television, stop reading the newspaper or substack or medium or quillette, stop listening to music with words in - congratulations, Moldbug's prescription is just the thing. You can treat something as if it doesn't exist on the condition that, as far as your own practical purposes go, it does not exist.

Moldbug doesn't see anything wrong with pretending, and Satan is proud of him. 

If you do your set 2s, you can feel that Moldbug's aura resonates with treachery, and trace that to his Fascism. When Yarvin wrote as Moldbug it was much, much weaker. Brown Scare may not be treacherous at all. It's in full bloom now, though. 

Aside: we can see the creation/destruction asymmetry. Moldbug produces one line, the refutation is multiple paragraphs. Clearly the one line is working - substack helpfully ranks its magazines, and you can see many commentators taking it all seriously below these posts. All else equal the refutation will not work simply because it is longer. 

"all of which are weird and feel weird to the user"
Well, I was going to be a dissident, but it felt weird so I guess I'll quit.
America is boned long-term due to biological shortfalls. America is boned short-term because of the above.
Perhaps the Regime doesn't persecute you because they know all it needs to defeat you is mild discomfort.

Probably due to Prussian schooling, every American has ADHD: unwilling to do anything unless there are tangible short-term rewards. This is what creates Moldbug's niche in the first place: the official narrative is geared for like, IQ 90, and due to Fascism they can't exactly segment the market. This produces cognitive dissonance, in other words, short-term pain. Moldbug relieves this pain, without requiring any, you know, actual work.

Basically I would like to see toy dissidence. Start small. Have a single forum - perhaps even simply confiscating someone else's forum - and declare it a no-Fascism zone. It would be properly passivist. More of a proof of concept. Build a prototype to find the flaws in the blueprint. However, this would naturally be unpaid. Doing it with Americans would herding cats, because they won't give up their support for 'universal education' by which they mean Prussian school.

I recently saw the line "we sold our digital inheritance for a few squirts of dopamine" which is darkly amusing. What, like Americans were ever not going to follow their base, childish impulses?

Moldbug sends his kids to school. Is he a blithering idiot? Or does he want his kids to be properly Fascist? But you know, very cool and very legal Fascists.
I mean, I can't blame him for trying. It does appear to be making money. Let's all agree I never have to take his poor gullible readers seriously, though. 

I have very explicitly defined Fascism and leftism. Indeed, more than once. I spent years looking for inconsistencies and changing the definitions until I couldn't find inconsistencies anymore.

Because I'm autistic, I was at first fooled by everyone's assertion that they don't want to be Fascist. However, I still suspected. It felt off. Now I have the explicit definitions, I can prove that everyone saying they don't want to be Fascist is a liar. They're not interested in the definitions. You need the definitions to even know what you're trying to not-be. Success is impossible, especially with Fascism deliberately trying to hack in.

As a stupid example, maybe someone would try the definition, fail, and try again. Is this a superpower? Am I expecting something no normal human can possibly do? The failure comes from not attempting to try in the first place, and it's not attempted because they have no desire to reach the end of this path.

Which would be the other reason America is boned. They want Fascism, which means they will (and are) getting it good and hard. They pray to Gnon to grant them Fascism, and Gnon will generously provide. 

Likewise, Chinese history can be summed up as praying to Gnon to be dominated by the person who is strongest in an immediate short-term sense. What else can Mandate of Heaven possibly mean? Gnon loves the Chinese also, and has affectionately granted their request. 

Are you in the mood for some Buddhist compassion?
Moldbug feels he has no choice but to be treacherous. In his rational, considered opinion, he agrees with me - dissent has no place, no purpose, and no hope in modern America. Fundamental theorem of history: history repeats. Dissent didn't take down the Nazis. Nor the Commies. Nor Rome. It will be equally impotent here.

However, it is easy to let the blackpill seduce you into inaction. Moldbug doesn't know how. And wouldn't it be stupid if he were mistaken? Oh actually it would have worked if he just tried something. So, he tries something. He can't rationally convince himself, so he betrays his own judgment to accomplish this. 

Unfortunately, this treachery gets thaumaturgically passed onto his readers. Still, he believes there are no options aside from either treachery or despair and paralysis. 

Everyone has faith. Moldbug feels the treachery is a test of his faith. He maintains that, through mysterious ways, it will end up being not-treachery. If you had the option of seeing treachery as a test or seeing despair as a test, wouldn't you also pick action over inaction?

I know two ways to learn how to transmute a black pill into action.
One: take the black pill. The way out is through. You are mistaken about what it's like on the inside.
Two: discipline. Socrates questioned everything, and this is exactly correct. Is the black pill really black? How black? Black in what way? In this case, one can even slash the willpower required by directing one's base impulses for sedition and dissent towards one's own beliefs. 

What might you learn doing this? Picking action over inaction is the Fascism talking again. Perhaps we can agree that it's contemptible to wait to be saved. Why not have faith the inaction is temporary? Why not have faith that the correct course of action will be revealed to you in time? In contrast, perhaps waiting to be saved is proper humility. Perhaps the test is this: when you can't do anything, are you capable of accepting your own impotence?

The only thing we can be sure of: you can't know in advance. Gnon does not answers prayers you do not speak. One must check. 

Likewise, Moldbug's readers believe being betrayed is rational. They believe this, in short, because they are weak. Contra Yeshua, weakness is a sin. Until they repent, they are sinners, and damned. In theory it's possible for Americans to repent of their very American weakness. However, then they're not Americans anymore, and I've never witnessed one being willing to go that far. Cranking the compassion up a notch: it's true that profound repentance is difficult in the American case. They torture children on an industrial scale. It is no small sin, and should it be acknowledged it weighs profoundly on the conscience. Bit of a catch-22. They must repent to become strong, but must first become strong so they can repent.

Thursday, January 21, 2021

The Online Personality, Thaumaturgically

My problem with social media:
You can casually combine a Rules of Nature person with a Witch/Nectar person into one consistent individual. Not even hard. The full range of human experience is heckin' wide, and praise be to Gnon.

The heart is glorious because it is weak. What's the point of having a tough exterior if you don't have a gooey interior? "I was worried about my armour so I armoured it." Err, good joke?

Prey, too, can be glorious. Imagine you have nothing. No weapons, no brains. Despite this, when the lion comes for you, you live. The wolf slavers for your delicious organs, but her pack goes home hungry. Booyah! The predator is strong in body and the prey is strong in soul.

On Twitter you have to confine yourself to a monochromatic wavelength of light or you confuse your followers. Followers refuse to engage deeply enough to permit Tweeters to develop into interesting characters. On Twitter you have to be boring, a liar, or a nonentity. Selection against non-NPCs.

Cathedral Is A Perfect Term, or Prospiracy Considered Retarded

Being correct, the term must be disavowed by Moldbug.

 "it evolves; this doctrine has a predictable direction of evolution, and the whole structure moves together."

No mystery.There's a Pope. We don't know who it is because they rely on security by obscurity. As per the principles of responsibility laundering, they never show up in the news. One of the side effects is that their decrees are typically slow. Can take years to get through the system.

Getting a quick response is to buy a sonar unit for those it's getting a response from. We as observers would be able to trace the orders, so they normally don't. Further, since America is basically a usurper regime, and lots of high-church proggies are more than happy to usurp the Pope position, even before we have time to trace the orders the Pope would be violently replaced. We would trace the orders to a branch that has already been pruned.

Fascism, as per Land, is Communism that's insecure and ashamed of itself. In a properly Fascist country (not Russia or China, which barely even pretend to be democratic) naturally the evolution is from more ashamed and hypocritical to more zealous and pure. Imagine the counterfactual: if the evolution is towards less Fascism, it means they have already converted to anti-Fascist convictions. For completeness I will also mention the second counterfactual: a confident and assertive Communist country is one with over 90% mortality. All are equal only in death. The Fascist dimly senses this, and they don't want to actually die, which is why they're ashamed and compromise Communism with some form of Reality, such as Capitalism.

Fun trivia: the Pope doesn't like SJWs, and wants them to sit down and shut up. They're making things worse for everyone, including themselves. However, SJWs really do arise spontaneously, and do so more often than the Pope can order them shut down. Any that truly step beyond the pale get whacked by one of the fast-track orders, though. 

There has to be a Pope in theory due to the nature of property. If two fight over ownership of something, one must win. Shocking news: once I've eaten a pear, you can't also eat it. Whichever hungry person ends up eating the pear was already the owner. The conflict arose due to someone being mistaken about this ownership. (See also: Socrates, evil vs. ignorance.)

As previously, we can see there must also be a Pope in practice, because we don't see dead evolutionary lines. One of which would have caused America to nuke itself a long time ago.

Let's talk about evolution, tornadoes, and blind watchmakers. I think it's funny.
The argument runs thus: evolution is like a tornado assembling an airliner. In fact evolution supposes that, given that tornadoes are caused by airliners and the airliners can adjust the tornadoes to be more likely to assemble an airliner, and further that airliners kill and eat any tornadoes that destroy airliners, it's not particularly surprising to see a tornado assemble a complex artifact.
Or: yeah, evolution is a blind watchmaker assuming blind watchmakers exist as a matter of logical necessity and it turns out watches can unblind watchmakers if they manage to successfully assemble a watch.
Moldbug's prospiracy hypothesis is that not only do tornadoes assemble airliners, they can only assemble airliners as a matter of logical necessity. Every tornado assembles an airliner perfectly. It must be so, because the Cathedral essentially never tries anything that ultimately goes extinct. Good joke! Bad logic.

More: you can see the command structure in the way the election was stolen. If they were merely ordered to defraud guerrilla style, the methods would have varied. In reality we get a series of late-night vote dumps with hecked up ratios. (There was some guerrilla stuff but it's insignificant and Twitter lets you post about it.) It's not hard to imagine how this happened. They tried to be all wink-wink nudge-nudge but democratic operatives are biological trash - not merely peasants, but underclass - and had to repeatedly ask for clarification until they functionally got a direct, detailed order. Similarly one of courts would have heard one of Trump's suits, accidentally or by brain damage. Evolution is sloppy. The Cathedral is not sloppy. Not when it matters. 

I tried to resist hammering this into the ground, but the prospiracy theory is real fuckin' dumb, so I decline.
The 2016-2020 series makes perfect sense as the reaction of a perfectly normal command-and-control structure. Normally you can defraud about 6% of the vote. I estimate DNC gets 6% and RNC gets 5%, adds up to 1%. In 2016 they knew a) if they defrauded properly like they did in 2020, it would be obvious, as in fact it was and b) 6% fraud means a swing of 12%. 50-50 goes to 44-56. They figured they had very little to worry about. The RNC wasn't going to play ball with Trump, giving the DNC  free reign. No way Trump would overcome a 12-point disadvantage, right? He's a reality TV star for Satan's sake. Worst case they blackmail him later or kill his credibility with wall-to-wall negative coverage.

Haha, oops.

Sorry, Americans really do hate you that much, nerd.

Frankly Trump constitutes lese majeste just by existing, so they decided to show their full might in 2020. Gloves off. Yeah it would be expensive and embarrassing but Trump's worth it, so they went for the throat. 

Have you seen some of the designs evolution comes up with? Evolution is inhuman. When it goes off the chain the things it makes are almost unfathomable. How do eyes evolve? It's absurdly clever, however it's managed. Oh, except for these inexplicable idiotic solecisms like the tailbone and making the birth canal also the insemination canal, not to mention running this plumbing through the hips instead of around them. Evolution does not make for clean and easy to understand narratives with understandable mistakes you could have made yourself. If tornadoes really were handing you airliners every time they passed through your back yard, yes 2020 would have been stolen but how would it have been done? We would not have a clue on God's green Earth. There would have been vote dumps in Trump's favour happening at high noon in the middle of urban Wisconsin. WTF moments everywhere.

No, if 2016 wasn't defrauded enough, evolution doesn't try proper fraud in 2020. Evolution is super dumb on timescales like that. If Trump had fired the Swamp, then maybe the selection would have been harsh enough. In reality Trump fired Sir Diddly and the Right Honourable Squat.

Look, I'm trying to run out of reasons to say [prospiracy considered retarded] but I keep finding new ones. Sorry.

Moldbug is a lord. If this isn't obvious to you, remember he built an Urbit. Moldbug's problem is that he's a lower-ranked lord than the Pope and is very successfully bottoming from the bottom. Fascist gonna fasc.

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

On Formalizing Blocs

A rather transparent attempt to de-legitimize the regime, no?
De-legitimizing the illegitimate is lovely of course, but the regime tends to object. The regime is hardly a stranger to violence. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It would also make vote fraud a lot harder. If gang B has 1200 members, of which 5000 voted, it's very embarrassing. American voting systems are insecure on purpose. Guess who made them insecure, and guess why they would do such a thing. 

"I snapped—called him a fascist. “Neighbour,” I said, “we’ve been a one-party state since your grandma was—”"

"though in many ways it is in effect a sadistic tyranny, it is [...] at least, certainly not by people who think of themselves as sadistic tyrants"
Though to be precise the psycho lords are well aware they cannot afford to appear to be psycho lords. Luckily this is normally not an issue since they can simply have their Pope order the peasants not to see them as psycho lords, and lo and behold their will be done. BLM has a body count in the 10,000s - and I'm talking purely Africans here -  but nobody will ever see them as racist mass-murderers. Or rather, everyone who matters already sees them as exactly that, but are on board with the plan.  You can tell by showing them the stats and watching them go all [invisible garage dragon]. They are not surprised, and know exactly which realities they need the chutzpah to flatly deny.

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

On Advice

I used to take advice regularly. I saw all the folks ignoring their good advice, and I was determined to not be like that. Autism superpowers activate! They couldn't tell good advice from bad, why would I be able to? I'll take all of it. The conflicting bits I'll take alternately and compare. Secretly I have high agreeableness and would rather get along.

Unfortunately all the advice was bad. Haha, joke's on me.

You know the advice I needed to hear?

"Yeah, you're right. They don't respect you. So quit. You can't walk through walls without using a door, you can't fly to the moon by flapping your arms, you can't draw a circle with corners, and you can't offer advice worth a damn. Fun fact: impossible things are impossible."

Who offers this advice? It's plain brutal. Nobody offers it. Jocko: "No no it's just in your head, everyone loves you." Yeah thanks heard that one before.

The first time I offered myself the advice, I took it. I took everyone's advice, but especially my own. And it fuckin' worked. You know respect isn't needed to live? And you can just let folk fail? They were going to fail anyway, but now I don't look like a douche. (I am a douche, but I don't look like one IRL. In fact I had to tone down the persona's charisma because I was regularly getting limpets.)

When my brutal advice worked, I immediately wondered. What other brutal things would work? Well, all your base. I offered myself the nastiest shit I could possibly imagine and damn it has been effective. I got most of it during the first pass but I did miss a major one until just last year. I'm somewhat addicted. If it's not caustic enough to pry apart flesh and bone I can hardly be bothered. My last one knocked me on my ass for two weeks, and that's about the level I like. Borderline existential crisis. 

If you think about it, all advice is brutal. You can lie about it or you can be upfront. I guess that's being 'indirect'. What's Jocko actually saying to this poor sap? "Yeah you're wrong about everything and actually your judgment is bad, your lived experience is pure illusion. Reals not feels jackhole, haha. This is what I sound like when I'm trying to be nice." You know what? That's properly caustic. Might be true. Let's check. (Later.) It sure as hell ain't nice. It's wearing the smiley drama mask, but being 'indirect' is a fuckin' lie, that's what's wrong with it.

Let's think about it: either the caustic version is true, or not. If it's true, it turns out he's an idiot and there's no cure for idiocy. You're fucked, have fun with that mate. If it's false - if in fact his environment has a respect problem - Jocko's advice is worthless due to being wrong on both levels. The advice is self-refuting in all conceivable situations.

By contrast, "don't offer advice" is especially true. If you're an idiot, well that explains why nobody respects you or takes your advice, doesn't it? If you're not an idiot, odds are your environment has a respect problem. It's not you, it's them, but it still means: don't offer advice. They have head injuries which are in the way. Impossible things are impossible. 

But wait, there's more. The poor sap is going to feel like he was offered the caustic version whether it's veiled or not. I've never seen someone successfully let down easy. Have you? Rejection feels like rejection, which feels like failure. There's no combination of words or etiquette which makes failure feel like not-failure; and thank God for small mercies. Sure, don't deliberately add a pain garnish on the pain steak, but... Likewise, being called an idiot feels like being called an idiot, no matter how fancy you dress it up. 

Let's twist the knife. Jocko is saying, "Oh yeah, sure folk respect you. I mean, I don't, but others, yeah definitely those others who I don't even know as well as a faceless letter." Savage. Shit, what would this bastard say if he was trying to be mean?

All advice boils down to virtue signalling. "I know how to run your life and you don't." If that's true, it's brutal. If it's false, you're an asshole. In almost all cases they know how to run their life better than you by virtue of years of experience. "Hey fattie, you need to lose weight." Fatty: "Shocking insight Sherlock. You spend all night figuring that out?" They either already know or they're a fuckin' idiot and can't take the advice anyway. 

Basically humans are rational. If their rationale doesn't seem to make sense it's merely because they're lying to you. Work out what the action will accomplish and infer they intend to do that thing. Typically the motivation for lying to you will be immediately obvious. Taking your advice would have stopped them from accomplishing their real goal, so... The fatty is fat because they care more about other things than about losing weight. Starvation diets are bad for you but if you're willing to be hungry forever you can be as skinny as you want. It's never impossible. Anorexics are the opposite. They care more about being skinny than about little things like not dying. No accounting for taste. "You might buy it!" Real talk: "Yeah. So?" 

This poor sap is probably playing some sort of Game that People Play. Slave morality: being persecuted is holy. If he can offer good advice (the best! peer-reviewed and everything!) and get it rejected, he is persecuted, and thus a Good Person. Woe is Me or I Got You Now, SOB. He's deliberately trying to get his advice rejected, but has this niggling small voice saying that even winning this 4D chess game isn't worth the time spent playing...

I do occasionally get asked for advice, but in meatspace I always deflect. They don't want advice, they want affirmation, but I hate lying so that doesn't work out. I suppose in theory you could probably do [a fool who persists in his folly becomes wise]. Want to get a tattoo? Double down man. Get a whole sleeve. I know this one guy (on twitch) and he's was so happy with his sleeve he had to get another. It was expensive and he was saving up and everything. Problem being this is a touch too parasitic. Feels like I would be encouraging others to really fuck up their life so I look better by comparison. Falling institutions should be pushed but I'm less sanguine about treating poor gullible individuals like that.

I still occasionally offer advice. When I feel like deliberately being a dick. The only point is to set up an, "I told you so," which in turn only serves the cause of being smug.

On Politics

It's worth repeating: politics is strictly bad.
If nobody is being betrayed, it's not politics. All politicians are traitors. The rope is too good for them.
Even setting aside 90% of the population who are shills, it's not /pol/lacks, it's /pol/lutants.

That is all.

Friday, January 15, 2021

Commies and Serfs, Friends 4lyfe

I forget where, but I recently came across the fascinating idea that Soviet Communism was an attempt by the Russian bourgeoisie to re-connect with the alienated Russian peasantry.

Certainly this is the story they told themselves. The story necessarily reveals their true motives.

"Hey, I want to be your friend, but first you have to change everything about yourself." This isn't exactly an expression of affection. More of an expression of implacable hatred? "I would love to be friends with someone who is nothing like you at all." 

They chose Communism as the vehicle for this hatred. It's a selection effect - if it couldn't incarnate hatred, it wouldn't have been chosen. It killed enormous numbers of Russian peasants, exactly as you would expect an apotheosis of hatred to do. Sociology is easy and they got what they wanted on the first try.

Apparently this is a real difficult point. Got some Occult Technique to share with you here. If you want to be friends with someone, walk up to them and say hi. Ask them what they're up to and how their day is going. Maybe it's not exciting, but it's fairly reliable. You do not need to upend a whole country to make friends with someone - as counterintuitive as this may seem.

Thursday, January 14, 2021

Poltergeists Seize Power

Lord save us from journalists and patriots.

You realize Trump could have seized DC with his rioters? He decided not to, because he is/was a patriot. Seizing power through the sine qua non of democratic processes, literally to a T the way the Founding Fathers seized power, would have been to betray America's democratic principles. If we stop equivocating it turns out ignorant red voters wanted less Fascism, but Trump is a loyal Fascist and it was his duty to stop them from betraying themselves like that. His protest was white and it would have been racist, see. Friends don't let friends do the r. 

Incidentally this is why the Cathedral is freaking out about said riot. Trump has exposed a fatal weakness to the world. All that remains now is for some enterprising mid-level aristocrat to whip up a mob and exploit it. (High-level aristos already knew about the weakness.) 

We get used to seeing mobs as somewhat impotent, largely confined to looting undefended stores. Sure they cause hundreds of billions in damage, but only because the police have been explicitly ordered not to stop them. When it's a red-state mob, this is not the case. Imagine the mob where Rittens is an average member. 


Anyway, let's talk context. 

Jack is a Lord. Highly ranked, maybe even a duke, though I doubt it. You can tell because he built a company.

Twitter has around 5000 employees. You need at least 50 lords to manage 5000 peasants. Jack has maybe three lords including himself.
To run 5000 peasants properly as a single unit, at minimum Jack would need 50 squires or knights, plus two barons managing 25 knights each, plus a count or margrave or something to keep the barons yoked together and reporting properly to Jack. If any layer is not properly hierarchical in such a way, the high-status subordinate will merely end up topping from the bottom, essentially isolating their department from the CEO.

Jack, however, is a Fascist. He has no idea that leaders are born, not made. He thinks if he hires smart enough cows they can learn not to be herd animals, and that's exactly what he tried. Not that he had a real choice, given that there aren't 50 available lords. He would have had to choke his company down to the available lords; simply not allowing it to expand.
Result: some of the psycho lords inside USG noticed all these loose peasants and casually mind-controlled some key figures. The peasants couldn't possibly do what Jack wanted them to do because there aren't enough hours in the day for Jack to tell them all what to do. In particular, the censors were seized, in accordance with Roman tradition. Or rather, the psycho lords had agents mind-control the peasants on their behalf. It wouldn't do for mere employees to get ideas above their station due to regularly speaking to those with real power. Secrecy is also an issue. Have to have at least one sacrificial cutout in case Assange or someone exposes the racket. 

Aside: it's plainly obvious Jack wants out, and if you can explain to me why he doesn't just quit, I would greatly appreciate it. 

I shouldn't (but probably do) have to point out that this model is specific and easily falsified. You can cast my description as functions with certain unknown variables, and go looking for the missing variables. Track down the censors at Twitter. (Or Facebook.) Track down who they consider to be 'thought leaders'. Track down who gives marching orders to the thought leaders. If any of the dynamics aren't as I described, it will become immediately obvious. 

In short it's not a shamanistic model. This is [stage direction], not thaumaturgy. As such, I learned something today. Moldbug is a little shamanistic, but not consistently enough to do it properly. He's super chuffed about the anima called the Official Press, and quite happy to let it summon historical poltergeists to throw things around without any noticeable agent interaction. 

Apparently, the Press has power, which it uses according to hunger.

Somehow, China and Russia's press aren't subject to any of the nonsense that Moldbug ascribes to the Press. Apparently Russian journalists don't suffer from thymos? What privilege!

The Press attacked Trump's riot. Because it wasn't secured. Sure. I can agree.
The Press didn't attack BLM riots. Because they were secured. Problem: they were primarily secured by journalist air cover.

Moldbug's thesis: the Press attacks things the Press doesn't secure. Haha, oops.

Back when there were some Americans fluent in English, this formal fallacy was known as begging the question. 

Of course in reality, it's the Twitter thing again. Sulzberger can't control all his peasants. More on this in a bit.

This aposiopesis has several roots. First is mixing shamanistic analysis with regular analysis. The Press is certainly an anima. Absolutely. Power (kratia) is not an anima. Power is joules per second. Joules are force times distance. If you can't write the detailed position function x(t) then you don't understand Power. 

Moldbug vs. Junk DNA. Alleged scientist: "I can't find a function for this, therefore it has no function."
MAGA rioters get arrested, while Fascist rioters don't. "I can't see why therefore I don't need to explain it."

Moldbug has gone full climatologist. If you think the Earth is doing funky climate things and you're a real scientist, the first thing you check is what Jupiter is doing. Nature is generously providing you with a control, and it's rude not to take advantage of it. If you're a climatologist, you become a lady and protest way too much in the pages of Wikipedia. Jupiter might be tracking Earth's temperature kink for kink but that's Definitely Not Important due to Reasons.
Likewise Moldbug is a Fascist who loves Fascists but is quite done with Fascism. Thus there must be some very clever reason Fascists keep doing the Fascism. Sure, it's fun to play with toy theories and likewise it's an interesting intellectual exercise to work out why exactly Zuckbook censors so close to the party line, but...well, more on this in a bit.

What would really happen should Zuckerberg or Dorsey start countermanding the traitors in their organization? I figure Zuck would be fired by the board he allegedly controls. Alternatively they have or can invent blackmail material on Zuck. Accuse him of Russian collusion. Zuck doesn't exactly have tens of millions of loyal potential-rioters who might get pissed about this. 

If this wouldn't work it's clear that he would be blocked by Visa and Paypal, the same way Gab is. Lose all his advertisers and so on. Remember all business in America is in violation of the law, as per anarcho-tyranny. If you pay your dues to the Party, then you don't get prosecuted. Rebel, and suddenly the investigators start noticing your irregularities. If Zuck can't be prosecuted for anything, certainly his advertisers can be found to have hostile work environments or whatever it takes. Often they don't even need to be this ham-handed. American businesses suffer lawsuits constantly. All they have to do is stop ruling in favour of favoured corporations. 

The Press is likewise controlled. It is normal for the Press to commit treason or break various secret acts. Should any paper dare to cross the Party, all they have to do is start prosecuting them for these crimes. 

If we're being proper shaman, the ultimate conclusion is Fascists gonna Fasc. America is a theocracy. It has a Pope. (A psycho Pope, natch.) The Pope is Fascist. Anyone who isn't Fascist gets excommunicated, because the Army is Fascist and backs the Pope. Who is the Pope? In this sense, Moldbug's intuition can sort of be rescued. It doesn't matter who the Pope is. Sure you could find him, attack him, and take him down, but the Army would remain Fascist (it's full of peasants, after all) and would only accept a new Fascist as Pope. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

However, there very certainly is a Pope, and he determines how far the party line goes. In particular he ensures nobody goes so far the Army is alienated and starts to doubt Fascism. Otherwise the alleged-holiness spirals would have given us tranny tyranny in the 50s. Further, the Pope finesses that line real hard. At least as tight as the joins in the Pyramids. He is exceptionally skilled. The Army is always on the verge of feeling betrayed enough to desert en masse, but never quite crosses that line. 

Russia and China may or may not be theocracies. Probably not? They have Popes anyway. Their Popes are not Fascist. Thus Pussy Riot gets beaten, arrested, and forgotten. Inexplicably this doesn't make the Russian Press act the slightest bit hungry. At worst, China's Pope is subordinate to a nu-Stalin.

Similarly we can see that places like the Philippines, Rwanda, Uruguay, Poland, and Hungary reject the Party the moment they think they can get away with it. The very instant America's force projection falters, they start rolling rightward. Cthulu always swims left as long as there's a literal gun to its head. 

What happens if you attack America's Pope? It doesn't work, because Fascism. The only way to make the Pope's defeat Official is to change public opinion. More precisely, to wrench the Army's loyalty away from the Pope. However, the Army can't understand that their Pope is the Pope. The Pope told them they think for themselves, and they obediently believe this is the case. To get them to sit down and listen long enough to teach them they're in fact ignorant, stupid peasants, you have to already be the Pope. 

Thus you only succeed in letting the psycho lords know you're a genuine threat. "He knows what's going on, shiiiiiiiiit~" Then they tell Hillary that you have evidence that might lead to her arrest, and then... They rely heavily on security by obscurity and piercing this will bring you right to the top of their to-do list. Sure you'll inconvenience the Papacy, but little else. If you can figure out who the Pope is, so can his enemies, and thus they coordinate a nice coup and usurp the office. Usurpers are more American than apple pie. You're already dead at this point, though.

Why is America biologically fucked? Because this hack is undoubtedly the best American writer. I've looked for decades for someone better than Moldbug, and found none. Is this good enough? This is not even remotely good enough.
You may think YouTube comments and Twitter replies are made primarily by idiot 13 year olds. Haha, nope. Average Americans aren't even fluent in English, let alone current events, let alone history.

"You would think no grownup could take this shit seriously. You would reckon poorly with history!"

On the contrary, it is exactly true that no grownup could take it seriously. Most Americans take it seriously, and the conclusion is left as an exercise for the reader.
Prusisan school is specifically and consciously designed to have this result. No grownup would be surprised that it in fact does.

BTW when Moldbug says he won't leave America, he's lying. If it becomes sensible he'll be out in a heartbeat. Pure signalling.

Monday, January 11, 2021

America is Biologically Fucked

"The real reason this could never happen is a reason you’ll like: they are simply not capable of it. They suck too much. And it’s just a biological fact—you can mutate bad ideas, but you can’t mutate suck. Huge sighs of relief are heard all over Berkeley."

Problem: Berkeley also sucks too much. Haha, oops. 

The design for America's government calls for 0 lords. No workable government can be formed using 0 lords. 

The nearest workable design to America's government calls for 100 lords where only 10 are available. Even if we imagined they fully exploited the available lordship resources, the system would have to adapt to having 90 non-lords in lord positions. It would attempt to need only 10 lords. These changes would make the remaining 10 lords uncomfortable, and they would leave. Lords have options, by definition. This is why the design calls for 0 lords. 

The aristocratic population can roughly be modelled as a constant. Only the peasant population grows. World population has decupled in the last 200 years. Indeed, perhaps saying there are 10 lords for every 100 demands for a lord is optimistic. Perhaps the last time there were enough lords was about 1300, meaning you're looking at 5 at best, give or take differential casualties in WWI. If education is a factor, 1 or fewer.

Although you can find a few lower nobles (barons or knights) born to the lower orders, you will essentially never find a duke or prince born into a peasant family. Even if you did they would go insane from loneliness and total dearth of challenge. On the plus side, even in modern times, the four horsemen are deeply prejudiced against the peasants. Sooner or later the problem will solve itself. We don't have to wait for the glacial aristocratic breeding cycle to catch up to the peasant's head start.


America's government is actively hostile to lordship, because the peasants are jealous and insecure. In other words, bureaucracy is about covering your ass and never taking responsibility, which gives hives to most real lords.

There are some psychopathic lords in the workings anyway, which allow it to sort of function. Turns out psychos are psychotic, so only the parts directly serving their sadistic amusement get maintained. For example, working ""for"" the IRS makes graft especially simple, and as a result it runs smooth as butter, even though tax receipts are almost meaningless to USG's budget. As for the rest, the peasants LARPing as lords create problems, because they can't think for themselves, and then desperately, hopelessly, try to patch them up. You can see the results in a newspaper. If you're into that sort of prurience.

'Diversity is our strength' => 'Let's try to steal everyone else's lords.' Problem: the lords don't want to come. They're already living large in their own countries. America offers them more money in exchange for less status. Yeah, good luck with that. (And the system can't use them even if they did take it.) Basically, you get bastards and wannabes. Not only that, but due to Fascism, you can't filter out the lower orders. Peasants, man, I tell ya. Meanwhile the psycho lords are allowing it because strangers and aliens vote democrat. Makes the elections almost look honest most of the time.

In some kind of prank by Fate, many of these peasants are sharp as a tack, and would be more than enough if they could only break away from their irresponsible bovine herd instincts. However, they can't. A smart cow makes smart milk. (Drinking it makes you feel smart or something.) The cow cannot be the lion. No policy or ideology short of Flood-level divine intervention can prevent America's auto-buggery.

It is darkly amusing to see alleged rightists worry about the birth rate on other continents when the birth problem was insolubly bad centuries ago. Certainly you can argue that these peasants are worse than those proles or whatever, but the Titanic is already listing. No sane lord is stupid enough to take responsible custodianship of the stinking, sinking wreck it pleases America to call a country.

Sunday, January 10, 2021

New Epistemic Principle

Could I have predicted Trump would lose the post-election? Is there a consistent, reliable principle? There is.

The fact I couldn't tell you what he was thinking would have allowed me to safely conclude he was quite fucked.

What I'm thinking is generally competent. If I don't know what you're thinking, it's going to be far from competence, and thus will fail, barring miraculous intervention. 

Looking for instances where this principle does not retrodict effectively, I come up with The Last Psychiatrist and Spice and Wolf, which have an unquestionably different feel. In each case I can tell there's something above my understanding. Rather than baffled, I'm curious. Trump is quite intelligent (principle: journalists are the opposite of true) but naturally he's no match for a properly trained scholar. He's thoroughly incapable of thinking anything beyond my capacity.

It didn't occur to Trump to secure the election process, even though he was obviously the victim of severe fraud in 2016. (The real vote was something like 40-58 for Trump.) It likewise did not occur to him to learn from his failures in office, and thus he continued to fail his way out of office. Or, for that matter, to learn from his successes and repeat them. E.g. his black vote skyrocketed because it turns out ninjas prefer to have jobs over not having jobs. However, Trump did not have the necessary training to trace this successful job-unblocking, or others like it, which meant he could not double down. Don't be like Trump: get this training in ASAP.

Saturday, January 9, 2021

Trump's Finale

Moldbug's lack of shamanism is killing him again; laser focused on the absurdly irrelevant point of whether Trump was really a President or not.
Provably the Cathedral would know he's ineffective too. I do get tired of the alleged right wing underestimating the enemies against whom they always fail utterly. Why would the Cathedral oppose a nothingburger so violently? Their hysteria confirms Trump was doing real damage.
The point of Trump was always to be an anima. He was a knowledge spirit whose purpose was to reveal the fakeness of Democracy in America, to explain the illegitimacy of the regime to the layman. In this he has succeeded beyond my wildest imagination. 

Naturally his protest also conforms to this Plan.
"Hey guys, you know you can seize DC at any time?" The Cathedral is a nerd. Smart, but right-wing voters can huck them into a locker whenever they want. Voters. Many normies now know this at the level of personal experience. But, by withdrawing peacefully, Trump painted his apparent Soviet-style disappearance as entirely illegitimate.
Alternatively the [Capitol protest was an op] hypothesis looks plausible. Trump was snatched in the night some weeks ago and the Cathedral planned it all as a retroactive fig leaf.

From now on you're going to be able to killshot a normie whenever you want, like this: "They disappeared a president the instant he became a former president. America is a Soviet dictatorship." Don't pay any attention to what the normie says afterwards. You've already won the debate and he knows it. It's like this all the way down. E.g. it's was awfully kind of Twitter to reveal that an allegedly public microblogging platform outranks the President, wasn't it?
Even if it turns out Trump resurfaces, and it turns out he was merely taking prudent steps to dodge the secret service, there are myriad reserve killshots to choose from.

I would like to add an honourable mention for the Duck, who has comprehensively demonstrated that the 'whitepill' is Fascist delusion, falling under diagnostic #2 - inability to not act, blended with a little anti-intellectualism, because nobody in America can think anymore. To a Fascist, having no idea what you're doing is no excuse for inaction. And certainly not a reason to go looking for knowledge. For contrast, imagine Musk getting mad at spaceship 'blackpillers' lol. 'The thing is going up right now, morons.'

In nearly unrelated news, Moldbug contradicted himself yet again. I'm genuinely worried about dementia at this point. Can't keep track of which lies go where.
"Also, a woman was killed—executed, basically, in fact. She was committing a crime, and deserved it. Law and order matters."
Ah yes, law and order matters all of a sudden. Election law? Pfui. What election law? Cherry picking is a kind of virtue, right?
Nihilism is true and morality isn't real, but there's a very real thing very close by: the constant tension between the long term and the short term. Prudence dictates sacrificing the short term for the long term, because the long term is bigger. To sharpen the point even further, vae victus is about lionizing the short term over the long term. 

"For example, let’s suppose (I am indebted for this analogy to some Twitter wag, whom I can’t find now) the US Constitution worked like the first-person shooter Halo."
It's Kantbot. You said the other day.

BTW the Bastille thing did not work, for exactly the same reasons Trump's presidency didn't work. It was also fake. The Bastille thing was a victory lap. Amusing, but unnecessary. Turns out, after you've already won, you can manufacture whatever optics you like. 

"there is absolutely no difficulty in using any level of the American security forces against the barbarians—regardless of the ideology of said security forces"
This is also a misunderstanding. The armed forces are Fascist. They can be used against any counter-Fascist action. They will rebel against counter-Fascist orders.
You can tell they're Fascist because American hasn't already revoked democracy. 

"The whole American right wing, from bowties to Nazis, are in the same position."
Moldbug forgot to include himself. Just a little lacuna there.

"This is extremely hard to explain."
It is much easier to explain if you know what's going on, and I can do so on command. It takes longer to untangle Moldbug's confusion than to build up from scratch. In short: 'What does it feel like to be so weak that mere words hurt you?'

Sunday, January 3, 2021

Capitalism is Obviously Extremely Real

Americans, naturally, by and large recoil from capitalism like vampires from garlic exactly because it's so real. It is surprising and inexplicable that America has any capitalism left in it at all. Although, likewise, there should be no science in America, what with having been nationalized by the communists in 1945. Nevertheless, some modicum of science still occurs, as a testament to the overwhelming virtue of a small minority. Perhaps a similar mechanism is behind the survival of capitalism in America? Come to think, Trump participated as well. Through sheer force of will, he tried to act like an actual President instead of Grand Chief of Treachery and Traitors. Turns out that's essentially impossible, but he really did try very hard.

A Certain September Date vs. False Flags

When you're running a false flag attack, you pick a symbolic target, not a strategic target. Gets folk riled up without affecting your warfighting capability. However: strategy is counter-intuitive. Your enemies (who are your own people in this case) also know this is how false flags work, so you should do your best to seem like you're attacking a strategic target. Absolutely smash that useless but emotionally dense symbol, while doing little more than scratching the paint on the strategic target.

Alternative hypothesis: an enemy force carried out a pitch-perfect false flag attack. In other words too stupid to focus their efforts on strategic targets, but not too stupid to pull off the attack in the first place. An unlikely combination.

Presidents of the United States are traditionally traitors. Almost every one has betrayed America in one way or another. Perhaps Trump, being too smart to play the game (and thus neutering himself) accidentally ended up as the first American president who isn't guilty of high treason. Which is why they hate him so much.

Yarvin vs. Gab vs. Voters

 Someone wanna tell Yarvin to explain to Gab how the government doesn't exist and thus didn't shut them down?

Amusingly, it is of course not shut-shut. It's still there, but the government has declared it low status and nobody wants to use it except losers and idiots. "Land of the free" lol. 

Losers, idiots, and dissidents - but it turns out there aren't any dissidents. That four-stroke narrative is a hell of a doozy. There is no resistance, only Zu- ...I mean, Mensheviks.