Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Trump Specifics

Want to get properly on the record here.

Summary: Trump being President kills democracy, but even odds it won't happen.

I believe Trump will win the popular vote for President. 90%, and the only reason I'm going higher is I think I have a lot of unknown unknowns.

I predict, however, that the votes will be defrauded sufficiently that he does not officially win. I call it 55-60% chance of this.

Because the fraud will be so widespread, it will be vulnerable. The system can only stretch so far before it's obvious. Trump could use this to expose it. However, I expect that he, like I, will realize this would destroy democracy in America. Once legitimacy goes, it's only a matter of time. Trump will side with his fellow elites over his voters. Call it 70-80%.

In this case, democracy may limp along a while yet. Trump's voters will be very angry, they will probably (85%) realize in their guts they were cheated, but America's aristocracy-suppression system is working very well. They will swallow this indignity, as they have every other, as long as the panem-et-circenses regime continues to provide diversions and dinners. 

In the case that Trump exposes the fraud, they may do the equivalent of a filibuster, and America will lack a President the way Belgium did. He may or may not become President at the end. If they don't, he will be President more or less immediately. I don't see democracy in America surviving either event - the only question is whether we see a sudden explosion or a lingering death.

In the case the votes are not defrauded, Trump wins. This spells the doom of democracy in America.

To get his wall built, Trump will have to steamroll the bureaucracy, and Harvard by proxy. While they could roll with this punch and survive, they have become too cocky, too paranoid, and too brittle. They will shatter, rather than simply wait 8 years. Their death throes will be spastic, and will cause widespread destruction - most likely abstract, in social trust and so on, possibly actual riots etc.

Alternatively, Trump fails to get the wall built. This will reveal the impotence of POTUS imperatives. It will become common knowledge that the election is theatre. It's a liar championship, held for circus value. They may try electing a 'bring back POTUS' candidate once or twice before they finally give up on their government, and kill democracy in America.

Trump deciding against building his wall after all is not significantly different in disillusioning outcome.

There is also a small chance, under 10%, that Trump is somehow disqualified. I believe he would already be disqualified if they could find a non-democracy-killing way to do it. They may find what they think is one that isn't, which will reveal the rigged nature of elections, even in America. Again, Trump could easily exploit this to defeat the official press, but doing so would destroy democracy in America, and I believe he will side with his fellow elites instead.

Bring it, Reality. Take the 'third' option, entirely out of left field.

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