Friday, May 18, 2012

What a Confirmed Prediction Looks Like

I recall saying I'd make a post about this.

Sadly there is trust involved, if you don't trust me or seriously distrust my memory, this post is pointless and you shouldn't read it.

"I shouldn't have posted in here. Now it pops up in my updated threads all the time and I have to endure all this pseudoscience."
Sounds at first glance like Iscariot is being a jerk. However, I know not to stop my analysis before I analyze all the information, and I realized he was probably feeling hurt and/or threatened by the suggestion. (Analysis details on request.) It would make Starfarer a significantly less fun game for him. (Test opportunity: what did he misinterpret about my idea and my intent?)

There's my prediction. Confirmation:
sdmike1:"I will also atempt to "demistiy" the gates in my next post"

Iscariot:"Do you have to?"

The result?
"Ok, I do understand that, shooting the sh*t about this kind of stuff is nerdy and a lot of fun, but I do hope none of it becomes canon-- trying to explain our silly game too much would be treading in hostile and unfamiliar territory."

Here's the trust bit. I have to have correctly remembered my prediction, not run confirmation bias on a vagueness, and not modified the memory by recalling it. I think these are very reasonable assumptions, but I know many disagree, and for those, this evidence is begging the question.

Nevertheless, that's my standard. If you think my standard is flawed, I want to hear about it. Second, now you can be precise about what my predictions and confirmations are worth.

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