Saturday, May 4, 2024

Chinese Innumeracy

 I noticed some Chinese commentators weren't good with math, and now we find the Chinese government isn't good with math. Lol@stereotypes. 

 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/china-wants-everyone-to-trade-in-their-old-cars-fridges-to-help-save-its-economy

 Hey morons, the reason they weren't already upgrading is because it costs more than you gain. 

 Hey imbeciles, you can't legislate wisdom. Perhaps certain members of the peasantry don't realize they can upgrade their windows for net savings within the 2-year rule of thumb, and not doing so is plain retarded...but idiocy is an iceberg. Even if you shave it all the way down to the water line, you've barely done anything at all. The less-obvious ice bobs up and they look almost as stupid as they did before.  

 

 The Chinese aren't as good with math as you've been told, but it's true their v-IQ is even lower. Verbal principles such as 'you can't legislate wisdom' are beyond their ken.

 They can't learn systematically. They can only learn each situation individually, in isolation. They know about point deer make horse, but they don't know about point cost make benefit. Maybe through painful experience they might learn that too, but there's two issues. 1) There's a limit to what individuals and cultures can learn by rote. Once they've learned point loss make profit, they forget about point deer make horse. Accumulation is impossible. 2) Novel situations are a law of nature. If China can only learn through "traditional" methods, China will always be fucked by novel situations. Whoops. 

 Systematic learning is largely about compression. Since you can't reasonably do anything to increase the wisdom cap, each particular bit of wisdom has to become more valuable. Apply to more situations while taking up less space.


 Secondarily, China has clearly drunk deeply of economic laudanum. They believe ""economists"" and, cue Moldbug, it has escaped their attention that when you stop shooting heroin, you feel awful. Government "stimulus" is crack. You need more and more crack to get the same high, and a recession is when tolerance has become so strong that no amount of "stimulus" can keep the crack addict awake.
 Broken window fallacy. In this case, buying new fridges will briefly prop up Haier &c, at the cost of being able to buy anything, including fridges, later. Recession = recession++, nice work FDR 2.0.

 Long term, short term.

 Of course, no black government can employ competent economists. They would tell you to fire the government, as it's easily the largest drain on the economy. Consequently black governments are always taking the advice of morons and madmen - making the government an even bigger drain on the economy. 

 If you don't think in the long term, you can't cooperate. Alchemically, black government are defectors and exist in dissonance with the long term. As you may know, the long-term Laffer maximum tax rate is 0. Anything higher than that causes taxable transactions to decline to zero, the only question is how long you expect it to take. Crime always destroys the source of its revenues, which is why it's important that taxation is inherently criminal.  

 The point of a black government is to be self-hating, after all, resulting in self-destruction and the suicide of the host society. 

10 comments:

rezzealaux said...

"But China is accused by the United States and Europe of flooding global markets with cheap goods and not doing enough to encourage local demand."

i can simplify that

"the point of production is to make prices go up"

wow the whole system is lying!

rezzealaux said...

oh shit

"the point of doing things is to make prices go up" simplifies to a single word

defection

rezzealaux said...

"Purpose of action is to make wealth go up" simplifies to " cooperation".
"Purpose of action is to make prices go up" simplifies to "defection".

Price vs wealth cannot be distinguished without agent = telos.

Disembodied wealth is impossible = Evil.

Alrenous said...

Commoners are dumb and don't negotiate with the black government. Employers and merchants are smart, and bribe the black government to try to increase their profit margins.
Deflation is when prices go down. Same money chasing more wealth. This makes the merchants unhappy, because they're not so dumb they don't negotiate, but they're still pretty fuckin' dumb. It also makes the black government unhappy because loan payments become more expensive, and the government is inevitably in debt. (Negative net worth - I mean, no shit it has negative net worth.)

Alrenous said...

Every black government is bankrupt. Why would they not be bankrupt? They can simply steal money if they need to buy more stuff.

rezzealaux said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LsAxKvt3JU

>the government can inflate the yen by printing more of it to pay off its own debt
>the government can't inflate the dollar by printing more of it to pay off its own debt
it occurs to me good looking white men are not actually intelligent and maybe it's just the yellow-white face blindness gap
maybe good looking white men are actually fucking retarded

>economic hardship causes political instability
>says this like it's not something adjacent to the sky is blue

>inflation is bad because your savings are gone
>deflation is bad because no one will ever buy anything
my first instinct is 'how do people live like this. i really wanna know.'
my first reaction to my first instinct is if i want to know i can continue reading short sun, whose protagonist is tied for first for the most evil character i've ever seen. and he's basically a regular guy. and i don't want to continue reading short sun. so i don't want to know.

"What an average person wants is whatever the money was worth when you got it, you want it to stay worth that amount. You want very low inflation." those two sentences are not equivalent statements

"You want very low, 2% or less, 0-2% inflation. That's what an average person wants. If I work for something and it's worth 100 slices of bread, that's what I want it to be worth later" 2% inflation means 98 slices of bread.
also the game is already lost because historically inflation was measured in loaves of bread, which are very different from slices of bread

i think i know why i hate economists now. or i have a correlation. the other side of the coin.

i love money. i love trading.
economists hate money and economists hate trading
therefore we are immortal enemies.

Alrenous said...

Remember, American. "Nobody could possibly be stupid enough to believe America can't inflate away its own debt."

I guess he thinks economic hardship doesn't cause instability.

You tried Death Gate Cycle, right? Did you get to the second or third book? If you're going to try it now, I would recommend starting with the second book, as the first wastes a bunch of time. Only the bits about Haplo are properly good, and Haplo is like ~30% or less of book one.

Apropos of nothing, my dreams now include hard-light holograms, hovercars, and somewhat incompetent (but clean and gleaming!) AI robo-copcars. (They hover and have a design philosophy that isn't 'sloped box')

Alrenous said...

Remember to use library books or library genesis until you're sure it's worth, you know, spending money on it.

rezzealaux said...

this is the first i've heard of death gate cycle.

what is its relation to the conversation? other than as a story.
i've read the aformentioned wolfe books up to the 2/3 of the first of the short sun. the others had better protagonists. the first protagonist fights to become god-king (this wasn't his original aim, but he does fight the whole time, and eventually fights to be that). the second protagonist is an idiot chosen by the gods for a specific task, utterly naive about how the world actually works. this third protagonist looks up to the second protagonist.

what kind of man looks up to an idiot?
well, what kind of man is below an idiot?

i generally like spending money on books. i think it's on my chart. it's like ufo catchers to me, the money is part of the fun. thriftbooks also makes this easier.
i forget libgen exists. partly because im not good at search + i dont like reading pdfs.
i forget the physical library exists too because the few times i went and looked it was a) ugly getting there, b) ugly being there, and c) did not have anything i wanted. looking now, it has a) incomplete set of wolfe books and b) ebook for all death gate cycle books.

which reminds me, they shut down a lot of archive.org's capabilities and have ongoing? lawsuits against them. can't have actual libraries that actually work.

Alrenous said...

I assumed the google result for short sun was vaguely relevant, but it looked like death gate cycle except worse in almost every way.

Of course you can't have libraries that work, they're Communist. Books aren't free.

Get the Elven Star e-book, read it for like fifty pages to see if you're allergic to anything in there. If not, sure why not buy the actual book.