If You're Honest, Things Are What They Appear to Be

 I have a family history of arrogance. Additionally, I was told straight up that kids don't listen to their elders and hence get into trouble. I am capable of learning from words, so I went and promised myself I wouldn't be arrogant. I could easily see everyone around me was wrong all the time - e.g. wrong answers to math in school - and I figured there was no reason I was special. I should doubt my analysis the way they failed to.

 I was indeed wrong. I am indeed special. There's no particular reason for me to fear being arrogantly mistaken. With very few exceptions, to me things look like what they are. All I have to do is remember to be self-aware and reflect on how accurate I estimate myself to be. Super easy, barely an inconvenience.

 Or, worse, I'm in fact not special.
 Americans appear very obsessed with appearances. What if they can in fact easily assess substance, just as I can? If so, that would explain why bringing up the substances behind the appearance discombobulate and infuriate them so easily. They can indeed assess substances, but are culturally forbidden to do so. It's extremely hard to fail to notice and they're rightly mad about me making it more difficult for them. 

 Basically, the kids in school confidently getting math wrong were generally aware they didn't know the answer, but felt they were culturally expected to come up with one anyway. 

 With the Sand Cave incident and Twitter et al you can see folk being very confidently wrong. This isn't about truth, it's about trying (and typically failing, but they don't quit because NPC) to assert dominance. Whether your idea or meme is any good is irrelevant, the point is to try to get picked up. It's cheap to throw your two cents in - often no more than two cents. Why not roll the dice?

 In Conquest #1 areas, folk are typically on the ball. Often publicly on the ball against their better interests. Switching register isn't easy, or alternatively they forget they're expected to be attest to lies in public.

 Are humans insane and deluded? Stupid? Or are they twisted and depraved?
 You can say I have some sort of divine blessing, like an IRL superpower. That bullet is bitable.
 Probably option B, though. They know what they're saying and acting out is disconnected from the truth. The guys at Sand Cave giving bad advice were aware it was likely to get Collins killed; that was the point. 

 

 You can see the self-doubt thing is a natural manipulation for the black State to attempt. If you get into the habit of self-doubt and never get out, you're vulnerable to a confident slave master or cult figure, or at least you cripple yourself and can't resist effectively. Or even form a denunciation.

 

 For completeness, it wasn't entirely without merit. I tested my prediction accuracy at 15 and got ~30% or so. Dismal. I was shocked and even hurt at how bad some of my predictions turned out. Even if the analysis is okay, the extrapolation can be extremely wonky. 

 

 When I was a kid, how things appeared was that they were being intentionally obtuse. "Surely not, though, right?" Naturally, this drew flak. They were pissed that I didn't in fact conclude they were lying to me on purpose. Yes, indeed, they were acting too dumb to be believed. That was the point. It's an Empire of Lies and they were good Imperials.